Friday, March 05, 2010

Euro to fail in five years, the EU in ten

Legendary Austrian entrepreneur, Doug Casey, makes some predictions. Here's a few random quotes:
...When you stop to think about it, the EU was really a stupid idea to begin with...They took on micromanaging everything, down to producing huge, phone-book-sized regulations on the composition of French cheeses, and so on.

...There are two possibilities. One, they bail out Greece. But if they do that, I don't see how they can keep Greece, which is still an independent country, from doing what it has always done in the past – which is to spend like there's no tomorrow on public servants' salaries and the like. And worse, if they bail Greece out, the other so-called PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain – will be knocking on the door, hat in hand, in short order.

...Because if they don't bail Greece out directly, they'll have to bail out their own banks that lent to Greece. They're stuck either way.

...The euro goes bust, probably within five years, and then the EU falls apart, probably not more than five years after that.

...Make no mistake; the green shoots everyone is so ecstatic about are not healthy economic activity. It's more like the way the water retreats first before the tsunami hits.

...In a real free market, those who create the most, and provide the most desired services, become wealthy. But the system is now such that those who hold political power, directly or indirectly, become most wealthy. They're the ones who've created the corrupt system we have today, and they set it up to make sure they can profit from it through their political connections, so it stands to reason that they will suffer the greatest losses when the system breaks apart. I have no problem with that at all. There's always been an element of this, of course, but it's gotten completely out of hand. It's reminiscent of Rome in the late republic.

...Similarly, given the unmistakable track record of duplicity among politicians, I can't respect voters who listen to their idiotic, totally unrealistic promises and keep trying to vote themselves into prosperity. And they certainly don't deserve my sympathy if they try to vote themselves a free lunch at my expense.

...I'm very sorry, for those new to the gold sector, that it has gone up four times since the bottom in 2001. But, certainly in inflation-adjusted terms, it's still relatively cheap.

...There will be a gold bubble. Definitely. But I don't think it's even started to inflate yet.

...But given that, still, very few people own gold today, it makes no sense to call the current market a bubble. Almost nobody owns gold – the number may even be statistically equivalent to zero.

...Time is working against all fiat currencies. And those that are relying on them.


CrisisMaven said...

A bubble in, say, shares, stocks or commodities happens when people believe it will "go up and up" (and is, as a rule, as with housing recently and "tech" stocks at the beginning of the millenium, again mainly driven by money inflation). Gold in contrast is a hedge against inflation and against looming sovereign defaults. Inflation by definition is the increase in money supply. There's no doubt that this has happened several fold in only two years. So there is inflation. Hence there is no gold bubble, as gold has not appreciated by a tenth even of what the monetary base has expanded!

Jack Maturin said...

Don't tell everyone, CrisisMaven, otherwise they'll all buy it and push my purchase prices up! :-)