Monday, May 24, 2010

So where's my invite to the LSE?

Hang on a minute.

I bang on for months, nay years, about how Britain is heading into Japanese-style stagflation, and nobody from the LSE sends me a cushy speech invite.

However, years after it's obvious what's going to happen, the Skool Swot Adam Posen tells us we're heading into Japanese-style stagflation, and suddenly he's hailed as an economic genius and a guru of the finest water:

=> MPC's Adam Posen warns Britain at risk of Japan-style deflation

So, now the Grate Adam has spoken, it must be true.

Chiz! Double-Chiz!! It's a Swindle! Etc.


Anonymous said...

The difference is that he speaks of deflation whilst you talk of hyperinflation.

You may still be right and hyperinflation coupled with stagnation may turn out to be the order of the day, in which case you will not both be right; he will be wrong

Jack Maturin said...

That's ok then.

Though obviously we could both be right, with the establishment using an initial price deflation caused by a collapse in China to justify huge money printing, which then later turns into hyperinflation (or just massive inflation).

My own bet is still stagflation, with price inflation running at between 5-15%, but with zero or negative economic growth, and gradually increasing unemployment, only thwarted by the government changing the rules on what constitutes unemployment.